by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2022 03:58:00 PM
Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. I wrote:
So I think some pundits have it backwards: Instead of a strong local economy keeping housing afloat, I think the bursting housing bubble will significantly impact housing dependent local economies.
And sure enough, the economies of housing dependent areas like the Inland Empire were devastated during the housing bust. However, prior to the pandemic, the Inland Empire was coming back strong.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the unemployment rate for the Inland Empire (using MSA: Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario), and also the number of construction jobs as a percent of total employment.
The unemployment rate was falling before the pandemic and was down to 3.6% (down from 14.4% in 2010). During the pandemic, the unemployment rate increased to 15.2%, but is down to 5.4%.
So, the Inland Empire economy isn’t as heavily depending on construction as during the bubble.
The second graph shows the number of construction jobs as a percent of total employment for the Inland Empire, all of California, and the entire U.S.
Clearly the Inland Empire is more dependent on construction than most areas. Construction employment – as a percent of total employment – has picked up but is still below the levels during the housing bubble.
