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Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales

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January 27, 2022
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by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2022 08:22:00 PM

Thursday:
o At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2021 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 5.4% annualized in Q4.

o Also, at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 260 thousand from 286 thousand last week.

o Also, at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in durable goods.

o At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index.

o At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for January.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Now
Week
Ago
Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated
63.5%
—
>=70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)
210.9
—
>=2321
New Cases per Day3
627,294
756,355
<=5,0002
Hospitalized3
142,194
144,642
<=3,0002
Deaths per Day3?
2,246
1,698
<=502
1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases are now declining.
Unfortunately, deaths are still rising – now averaging over 2 thousand deaths per day – but below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.
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