Investors overwhelmingly believe the S&P 500 bottom for this drawdown is not in yet, survey shows

Investors do not believe the market bottom is in yet, according to a survey released by Deutsche Bank. Less than one out of 10 investors expect that the S & P 500 already bottomed in June, a survey by the investment bank’s Jim Reid showed. More than half of survey respondents, 58%, expect the bottom will come next year or beyond. The S & P 500 registered a closing low of 3,666.77 on June 16. The broader market index then surged as much as 17.4% through mid August before easing from those levels. And a majority of investors think there’s more pain ahead. In September, 74% of traders anticipate markets will hit 3,300 first, a slight increase from the 72% that were expecting the same in June. After that, some expect the S & P 500 to reach an all-time high at 4,500. A decline to 3,300 represents a potential downside of 18% from Friday’s close. Traders are anticipating that the broader market index will once again retest June’s lows ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Central bank policymakers are widely anticipated to approve a third straight 75 basis point interest rate hike to fight inflation. Here are some other investors expectations, according to Deutsche Bank’s survey: Investors who expect the 10-year Treasury yield would hit 5%, before 1%, has grown. Seventy-three percent of investors this month are forecasting that the yield on the benchmark Treasury note would hit 5% first, compared to 60% of investors back who were expecting the same in June. More people believe that the Fed is on the right track on interest rate hikes. Thirty-seven percent of respondents in September believe the central bank “will get it about right,” compared to just 17% who said the same in April. Regardless, eight out of 10 respondents expect a recession is coming in 2023, while the number of those who think a downturn is coming this year has halved to 10% from 20%. Markets have been choppy in anticipation of the Fed’s next policy moves. Stocks rallied Monday afternoon as all three major averages continued to rebound after snapping a three-week losing streak on Friday.