Russia has been tight-lipped about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and strategists fear that Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield in an effort to save face.
Kyiv’s forces launched a massive counterattack in the northeast of the country, reclaiming thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied land over the last few days.
Now thoughts are turning to potential Russian retaliation, with Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times he was expecting a counterattack. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” Reznikov said, adding: “Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years.”
Russia has already launched intense shelling on the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister told Reuters it was too early to say Ukraine had full control of the area.
Close-followers of the Kremlin say President Vladimir Putin is likely weighing his options now.
“The military story for the Kremlin is becoming worse,” Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president said in a note Monday. “To the extent that continues, it pressures Putin into calling for a mobilization — likely a partial one but still a politically and socially costly move for the Russian president at home, that will force him into declaring war with Ukraine, and tacitly admitting that Russia is facing military problems,” he said in emailed comments. Russia has insisted on calling its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation,” not a war.
“Further, it makes Russian willingness to mete out Grozny-like ‘punishment’ onto the Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicting mass casualties on Ukraine through greater targeting of urban centers, as well as, in the worst case, using chemical or even tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to sow mass panic,” Bremmer added.
“If there’s a likely near-term change in the russia war going forward, it’s escalatory and not a negotiated breakthrough.”
Ukraine’s victories on the battlefield in recent days, and its ability to reclaim dozens of towns and villages in the Kharkiv region, puts Russia on the back foot. It is now scrambling to defend its territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, where two pro-Russian “republics” are located, in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces are widely believed to have been taken by surprise by Ukraine’s counterattack in the northeast of the country and were heavily outnumbered. There were signs that Russian forces had beaten a hasty retreat, with Russian stores of equipment and ammunition stores abandoned.
Ahead of these counterattacks in the northeast, Kyiv had heavily promoted a counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine — leading Russia to redeploy troops there.
On Monday, the Kremlin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s aims in Ukraine remain the same — to “liberate” the Donbas — and insisted that fighting would continue.
There are rumblings of discontent in Russia, however, with even staunch supporters of the Kremlin questioning the war in public forums, including on state-run TV in Russia.
“We’ve been told that everything is going according to plan. Does anyone really believe that six months ago the plan was to be leaving [the city of] Balakliya, repelling a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and failing to take over Kharkiv?” a usually pro-Putin political expert Viktor Olevich said on the state-run NTV channel, the Moscow Times reported.
Another public figure, former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin, said that Russia would not win the war if it continued to fight as it was, and said there needed to be “either mobilization and full-scale war, or we get out.”
Analysts at global risk consultancy Teneo noted in emailed comments Monday evening that military losses and the humiliation of Russian troops “pose risks to President Vladimir Putin’s regime, as domestic criticism of the conduct of the so-called special military operation is mounting from various sides.”
“As a result, Putin faces growing pressure to respond to increasingly unfavorable dynamics on the frontline, which might include either escalatory moves or calls to start ceasefire talks,” they added.
Putin’s ‘stark choice’
Putin’s regime now faces a difficult choice; the war is dragging on and its under-supplied forces are likely becoming demoralized as they come under pressure from Ukraine’s well-organized and well-armed army.
“Moscow faces a stark choice now I think: face humiliating defeat in Ukraine — which seems inevitable given the current troop force deployments, supply chains and momentum on Ukraine’s side — and sue for peace,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a note Monday.
“Or escalate with mass mobilisation and WMD [weapon of mass destruction], or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities.”
Ash said Putin had likely baulked at the mass mobilization option, which would put Russia on a war footing and see the conscription of many of its citizens. The “risk is that they come home in body bags and cause domestic social and political unrest in Russia,” he said, but added that Putin was also unlikely to resort to unconventional weapons — such as WMDs.
“Putin had the chance and failed to pull the trigger as he knows these are only really deterrents and once he does unleash them we are in a whole new ball game, risk of World War 3, and a chain of events which will be very difficult to manage but where he is clearly seen as the aggressor/mad guy and loses most of his friends internationally, including China, et al,” Ash added.
He said that, after more attempted intensive airstrikes in Ukraine, he expected Putin to attempt to begin “serious” peace talks. “But he will have to hurry up as the ground in Ukraine, and possibly even Moscow, is shifting quickly under his feet,” Ash noted.
“At this stage a total collapse of Russian forces across Ukraine is entirely possible – including that held before Feb. 24, including Crimea, and even talk about potential splits in Moscow and risks to Putin’s stay in power. Watch this space.”